国家气象中心新一代业务中期预报模式T213L31的主要特点

T2 1 3中期数值预报系统于 2 0 0 2年 9月 1日起在国家气象中心正式业务化。作为此系统核心的T2 1 3L31全球模式与原业务模式T1 0 6L1 9相比 ,采用了一些新的数值技术 ,包括半拉格朗日时间积分方案的引入 ,采用规约格点 ,分布内存与共享内存并行相结合 ,从而在目前有限的计算机资源条件下 ,能积分高分辨率的模式。更重要的是 ,模式采用了一些更新、具有更真实物理概念的物理过程参数化方案 ,对于辐射方案、次网格尺度地形参数化、积云对流方案、云方案、陆面过程方案都作了很大改进 ,从而克服了许多T1 0 6L1 9模式中存在的问题 ,明显提高了T2 1 3L31模式的预报技巧。     

准噶尔盆地石南地区清水河组一段层序地层特征

清水河组一段是石南31井区岩性油藏、石南44井区微幅构造油藏及整个腹部地区的重要产层，探究其层序地层特征对于指导研究区及整个腹部地区清水河组一段的隐蔽油气藏勘探有重要意义。通过对岩心、测井、地震等资料综合分析，指出清水河组一段相当于下白垩统第一个三级层序的低位及湖侵体系域。其层序地层特征显著，表现为:低位体系域以沟谷残余可容纳空间充填沉积为特点，分布较为局限，沟谷主要沉积辫状河道砂砾岩；湖侵体系域以退积型三角洲和三角洲前缘滑塌浊积扇沉积为主。建立了石南31井区的成藏模式，并指出三南凹陷中西部是岩性—地层油气藏勘探的有利区带。沟谷砂砾岩及三角洲前缘滑塌浊积扇可形成岩性圈闭，退积型三角洲可形成地层超覆圈闭；湖侵体系域顶部的泥岩可做为区域盖层；斜坡古地貌、深大断裂—中浅层断裂系统与不整合匹配为有效的输导体系。     

When are relative variograms useful in geostatistics?

The relative variogram has been employed as a tool for correcting a simple kind of nonstationarity, namely that in which local variance is proportional to local mean squared. In the past, this has been linked in a vague way to the lognormal distribution, although if {Z_t; t D}is strongly stationary and normal over a domain D,then clearly {exp (Z_t); t D}will stillbe stationary, but lognormal. The appropriate link is made in this article through a universal transformation principle. More general situations are considered, leading to the use of a scaled variogram.     

THE EFFECTS OF BOGUS TYPHOON AND OBSERVED OCEANIC DATA ON THE ABILITY OF T_(213)L_(31) TO PREDICT TC TRACK

The abilities of typhoon (TC) track prediction by a medium-range forecast model T213L31 at National Meteorological Center are analyzed and its ability to improve its TC forecasts is discussed. The results show that about 57% of the TCs could be predicted by T213L31 but the initial position errors are large.The 43% area without the prediction of TC tracks is concentrated between 13°N and 20°N and east of 120°E and lack of conventional observation data is the main reason for the absence of TC prediction in this area.The adding of bogus TC could improve the ability of TC track prediction when there is no TC vortex in the analysis field, but could only have positive effects on the short-range TC track prediction when there is TC vortex in the T213L31 analysis field.     

NCEP-FNL与T213L31同化资料对比分析中的地形差异影响

分析了2005年5月11日至6月10日的NCEP-FNL与T213L31分析资料在位势高度、温度和风场上的整体差异,揭示了低层差异最小,差异极值主要分布在3个关键区的特征。进一步通过地形高度差异与位势高度差异的相关性分析,认为青藏高原附近的地形高度差异的极值是引起两种资料位势高度差异的主要原因,并计算分析了这种差异对高原周围中低层大气环流的动力和热力影响。结果显示,在NCEP-FNL中的西南涡强度和热源作用较强,中层风速切变较弱。     

Recent discoveries of supersoft X‐ray sources in M 31

Classical novae (CNe) have recently been reported to represent the major class of supersoft X‐ray sources (SSSs) in the central area of our neighbouring galaxy M 31. This paper presents a review of results from recent X‐ray observations of M 31 with XMM‐Newton and Chandra. We carried out a dedicated optical and X‐ray monitoring program of CNe and SSSs in the central area ofM 31. We discovered the first SSSs in M 31 globular clusters (GCs) and their connection to the very first discovered CN in a M 31 GC. This result may have an impact on the CN rate in GCs. Furthermore, in our optical and X‐ray monitoring data we discovered the CN M3 1N 2007‐11a, which shows a very short SSS phase of 29–52 days. Short SSS states (durations ≤ 100 days) of CNe indicate massive white dwarfs (WDs) that are candidate progenitors of supernovae type Ia. In the case of M31N 2007‐11a, the optical and X‐ray light curves suggest a binary containing a WD with M_WD > 1.0 M_⊙. Finally, we present the discovery of the SSS counterpart of the CN M31N 2006‐04a. The X‐ray light curve of M31N 2006‐04a shows short‐time variability, which might indicate an orbital period of about 2 hours (© 2010 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

塔中古溶洞见证晚奥陶世抬升幅度

塔中隆起区上奥陶统良里塔格组灰岩与桑塔木组砂—粉砂岩之间为不整合接触,昭示着这两个组沉积期之间存在一次历时约百万年的区域性构造抬升事件。中古31井良里塔格组三段的4 125.6～4 133.9 m井段为垮塌型溶洞沉积,洞顶距良里塔格组二段顶部190.6 m,溶洞中角砾状充填物主要来自良里塔格组洞壁本身的礁相灰岩,且见数厘米厚的暗河流水沉积纹层,未发现源于其它时代的颗粒混杂其间。这一事实指证了溶洞的形成和充填时代均为良里塔格组沉积之后、桑塔木组覆盖之前的晚奥陶世凯迪中期。具溶蚀力的淡水潜流带的深度一般不低于周围的海平面,由此可推断出该井区这次抬升出海平面之上的高度,即使忽略良里塔格组顶部可能经地表剥蚀的良里塔格组一段,抬升出水面部分至少也应该有190 m,藉生态地层学恢复洞壁礁灰岩沉积时的海水深度约为30 m±,因此总抬升幅度至少能达到220 m。